From Data to Insight: Forecasting Global Medicine Use

In a video interview with Pharma Commerce, Murray Aitken, executive director of the IQVIA Institute for Human Data Science, explains the extensive process behind developing the “Global Use of Medicines Outlook Through 2029” report. The creation of this comprehensive resource spans several months and integrates proprietary IQVIA datasets, including the MIDAS (Market Intelligence Data Analytics Solution), market prognosis, and forecast link tools. The report combines robust data analytics with global expert insights to produce a holistic view of the pharmaceutical landscape.

Aitken emphasizes that a key part of the process involves gathering input from IQVIA’s network of experts across the world, each bringing localized perspectives on evolving trends in medicine use, access, and policy. These expert insights are then synthesized by an internal analytics team responsible for compiling the vast volume and value data.

In terms of metrics, the report estimates that 3.6 trillion defined daily doses of medicines were consumed globally in the past year. Additionally, the worldwide expenditure on medicines is projected to be approximately $1.8 trillion at list prices in 2024. Aitken notes that while there are some data gaps, IQVIA’s methodology includes filling in missing information using statistically sound models and expert validation.

The ultimate goal of the report is to provide all healthcare stakeholders—governments, policy makers, pharma executives, and researchers—with a clear, data-driven understanding of where medicines are being used, how frequently, and at what cost. Aitken concludes by expressing pride in his team’s efforts and the value the report brings in shaping discussions around global health policy, drug affordability, and resource allocation.

He also comments on how pharma companies should revise their market access and pricing models to align with the evolving landscape; strategies manufacturers should adopt to balance investment in innovation with lifecycle management in order to maintain sustainable growth; how the competitive landscape will evolve within these high-impact therapeutic areas, the role patient access and reimbursement play in shaping adoption; what he anticipates for the biosimilar adoption curve in key markets over the next five years; and much more.

A transcript of his conversation with PC can be found below.

PC: Could you describe the process behind developing this “Global Use of Medicines Outlook Through 2029” report?

Aitken: In preparing this kind of report, it takes several months, of course, to pull this content together. In the case of the “Global Use of Medicines Report,” we're drawing on some of IQVIA’s proprietary data and offerings, including the MIDAS [Market Intelligence Data Analytics Solution] dataset, market prognosis, and forecast link. We also draw upon our experts around the world. We've got thought leaders in every corner of the world monitoring the global markets, so we bring them together for a discussion about some of the key themes from their perspective, and then we have an analytics team that works on pulling together all of the data. We have to fill in some of the data gaps that we have, but that's the way that we get to measure the market.

In terms of volume, the 3.6 trillion defined daily doses of medicines that were used last year, as well as to calculate the total value of the market, the amount being spent on medicines, that we estimate at about $1.8 trillion at list prices in 2024. Pulling that all together is a big undertaking. We've got a lot of hard-working people within our team who work on that, and it's always a great delight to finally get it published and out into the public domain so it can be used by all stakeholders to have a better understanding of how medicines are being used, where they're being used in the world, and the cost of those medicines as well.