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Annual report finds continuing impact of COVID-19 on global markets
The IQVIA Institute for Human Data Science, in its annual Global Use of Medicines 2023, predicts steady 3-6% growth for the next five years, led by higher growth in the developing world (Latin America, Asia, and Africa), and lower growth in the US and Europe. Across the board, most of that growth is inflation or pricing policies; the actual volume of medications (on a calculated Defined Daily Doses basis) will range between 0.1% CAGR (for North America) to 2.5% (for Asia).
On top of the $1.9 trillion in invoice sales by 2027, the COVID-19 pandemic will continue to drive sales of vaccines and therapies through the 2027 period, although there is considerable uncertainty over how that will play out, with national policies, consumer acceptance, and new COVID variants all in flux. (FDA has just announced a proposed pathway of getting annual shots of a bivalent vaccine against the original form and the Omicron variant, but that choice was immediately questioned.) IQVIA estimates that global spending on vaccines and therapies will be $75 billion this year, falling to $50 billion in 2027. Interestingly, another recently published report, Clarivate Drugs to Watch 2023, finds that there are 791 vaccines and therapies in development to address COVID and its variants.
Among overall therapy categories, specialty medicines will represent about 43% of global spending in 2027 and 56% of total spending in developed markets. Global spending on cancer drugs is expected to reach $370 billion by 2027, with growth accelerating from the launch and use of novel drugs and limited new biosimilar impact. Immunology spending growth will slow to 3-6% through 2027 from price reductions associated with biosimilar competition, as volume growth continues at 12% annually. New therapies for rare neurological disorders, Alzheimer’s, and migraines are expected to drive spending growth in neurology.
Biotech will represent 35% of spending globally and will include both breakthrough cell and gene therapies, as well as a maturing biosimilar segment. Major advances are expected to continue, especially in oncology and immunology. The outlook for next-generation biotherapeutics includes a definitively uncertain range of clinical and commercial successes. These therapies—cellular, genetic, and RNA therapies—are projected to grow from a current $8 billion to $27 billion by 2027.
The IQVIA report is available here.