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Payer trends dominate near-term outlook
The IMS Health Institute for Healthcare Informatics has published a white paper, “Harbingers of Change in Healthcare: Implications for the role and use of medicines,” that’s worth a look. It is a little sketchy on how the 10 items were chosen (the report lists five IMS Health analysts as authors; and that’s it), while noting that the list is “not intended to be exhaustive.” On the other hand, the items are backed up by up-to-date market data (IMS Health’s core service); for example, it notes that Medicare prescriptions for sofosburvir (Gilead Science’s Sovaldi) and simeprivir (J&J’s Olysio), for hepatitis C, jumped eightfold (to over 105,000 prescriptions by September (the first 39 weeks the drugs were on the market), as compared to the introduction of earlier, interferon-based treatments introduced in 2011. That’s a solid indicator of the extent to which prescribers were “warehousing” patients in anticipation of the drugs’ approvals.
Here are the 10:
Arguably, several of these harbingers are already established fact: clinicians’ cost focus is well along (often through formulary requirements); and ACOs have been forming up for a couple years now (ACOs and “ACO-like” organizations now cover 10% of the US population). But 10 trends’ near- and long-term effects are seeping into more and more of how the pharma industry will address its clientele, from prescribers to central governments worldwide.
The report is available here.