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US growth remains off the global pace, market will expand by 3-5%, to $320-330 billion
IMS Health’s annual forecast shows that market growth will accelerate in 2011, going from a 4-5% estimated increase this year to 5-7% next year. While some major branded products, including Pfizer’s Lipitor cholesterol drug, BMS’ Plavix anti-clotting agent, Lilly’s Zyprexa anti-psychotic and J&J’s Levaquin antibiotic will be going off-patent, new entrants are expected in metastatic melanoma, multiple sclerosis, breast cancer, hepatitis C and acute coronary syndrome that will carry the industry forward.
“In 2011, we will see the loss of exclusivity for some iconic brands and a promising new wave of innovation,” says Murray Aitken, IMS Health SVP. “It also will be a critical year for gauging how healthcare reform initiatives in key markets evolve and play out amid the expected macroeconomic recovery. For pharmaceutical manufacturers, an unrelenting focus on bringing distinct value to patients and health systems will be essential to navigating this dynamic market.”
Continuing the pattern of the past several years, developed-world markets will grow slowly, while developing nations—including a group of 17 “pharmerging” markets, as IMS Health calls them, will show dramatically higher growth, rising by 15-17% to $170-180 billion. (The 17 are China, Brazil, Russia, India, Mexico, Turkey, Venezuela, Poland, Argentina, Ukraine, Thailand, South Africa, Egypt, Romania, Pakistan and Vietnam.) China, already the world’s third-largest market, will jump by 25-27% to over $50 billion. The market in Japan is projected to grow by 5-7%; this is a bye-year in Janpan’s biennial pricing recalibration. Major markets in Europe will grow by 1-3%, as will Canada.
IMS Health’s forecast is published in its IMS Market Prognosis report, and incorporates macroeconomic conditions, patient access levels, drug availability and pricing factors. Drug sales are predicted on an ex-manufacturer basis, not factoring in discounts or rebates for payers.