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Research firm's annual World Preview sees brightening outlook in drug approvals and R&D productivity
The annual World Preview, Outlook to 2018, from Evaluate Pharma (US HQ: Boston, MA) projects the global market to grow only 0.4% this year, to $717 billion—following the “unprecedented” shrinkage of 1.6% last year, to $714 billion. Then, the industry will experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) averaging 3.8% through 2018, reaching $895 billion. (Evaluate’s analysis and projections are based on a variety of current market data, plus in-depth analyses from financial analysts; the firm tracks the 500 “leading” pharma and biotech companies worldwide.)
One revealing insight from the analysis is that the biggest year for sales declines from patent expirations was 2012, when $38 billion was removed from the market. Evaluate measures both potential and actual sales losses; while there is a potential loss of $65 billion in 2015 from expirations, it forecasts an actual loss of only $16 billion in that year. And the main reason for that disparity will be the disconnect between expirations for biotech products, and the smaller likelihood that they will be replaced by lower-priced biosimilars. In fact, biotech products (bioengineered vaccines and biologics) were 21% of the worldwide market for prescription and OTC product sales in 2012, and will increase to 25% by 2018. (Also, 51% of the sales of the top 100 products in 2018 will be biotech.)
Other tidbits from the report:
The report was released at the annual DIA national meeting (Boston, June 24), and is available from Evaluate for download at this location.