Novartis: No. 1 pharma company in the world in 2020, says Evaluate Pharma

The annual report from Evaluate Pharma, World Preview 2015, Outlook to 2020, compiles a variety of data on research, drug pipelines, and current and projected sales. By its count, the No. 1 biopharma company in the world both in 2014 and 2020, will be Novartis, with projected sales of $53.3 billion (the company tracks only drug sales, and not other businesses that biopharma firms might be engaged in). Pfizer, the longtime No. 1 firm until recently, is projected to remain No. 2, even though 2020 sales will be essentially flat from 2014’s $4.6 billion. In fact, the top 20 firms collectively will show CAGR of 3%, while the projection for global sales will rise with a CAGR of 5%, to $987 billion. Companies not among the top 20 will grow at a CAGR of 8%.

Some other tidbits from the Evaluate Pharma report:

• Although the entire biopharma industry is looking to biologics as the future of the industry, the switchover between “conventional” pharma, and OTC and biotech products will proceed gradually. In 2014, the split was 79% conventional and 23% biotech (slight rounding error there); in 2020, the split will be 73%/27%. Evaluate Pharma says that recent downgrades of the prospects of some biologics, and upgrades of some small-molecule drugs (notably, Gilead Sciences’ hepatitis C franchise, and Celgene’s Revlimid product) are part of the reason.
• Global R&D spending will drop 0.5% this year, from $142 billion in 2014 to $141 billion now, but continue at a CAGR of between 2.1 and 2.8% per year, reaching $160 billion in 2020. According to Evaluate Pharma, “the spend per new molecular entity (NME) was $2.7 billion in 2014, the lowest for at least the past seven years. This fall in spend per NME indicates increased productivity within the industry; essentially companies are containing R&D spend whilst at the same time achieving greater regulatory success.”
• Oncology is now, and will be in 2020, the biggest therapy area, with $73.3 billion in sales in 2014, and $79.2 billion in sales in 2020. The next closest franchise is anti-rheumatics, with $48.8 billion in sales in 2020.
• AbbVie’s and Eisai’s Humira drug is the top-value drug in 2014 (sales: $12.89 billion)—and will be in 2020 ($13.93 billion). Although Gilead’s hep C products—Sovaldi and Harvoni—are projected to be worth $13.4 billion in 2020.

The full report is available for download at www.evaluatepharma.com.