Evaluate, who provides market insights for the pharma industry, has unveiled its “2025 World Preview Report,” which offers insights for the global pharmaceutical market through the year 2030.1,2 The breakdown is headlined by the prediction that worldwide prescription pharmaceutical sales will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 7% heading into 2030, with the fastest five growing therapeutic areas being: GLP-1s (metabolic disease), oncology, immunology, central nervous system and cardiovascular diseases.
Key Takeways
- China now accounts for nearly 40% of global drug licensing deals, up from just 3% in 2020, signaling its rapid rise in biopharma innovation and efficiency.
- GLP-1 therapies are driving pharma growth, projected to reach 9% of global Rx sales by 2030, with Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro/Zepbound expected to hit $62B in sales.
- Biologics have overtaken small molecules in market value, forecasted to make up 57% of prescription drug sales by 2030, though small molecules still lead M&A due to cost and convenience.
China's biopharma surge captures global attention
In the midst of tariffs, most-favored nation pricing, changes taking place at the FDA, and economic uncertainty, China has become a major player in the biopharma space, attributed to the combination of its molecule creation and efficiency. This is demonstrated by the fact that China-sourced assets made up only 3% of all licensing deals in 2020, but in 2025, will comprise nearly 40%. Clinical trial access for the nation has also been plentiful.
“There is a reassuring continuity to the 2025 World Preview Report’s data compared to last year, with familiar drivers like GLP-1s, biologics, and immunology remaining resilient within the market. However, there are certainly signs of fundamental change brewing, particularly when looking at China. Global competition, evolving regulatory dynamics, and new sources of innovation will inevitably reshape the industry, and time will tell which factors hold the most weight,” noted Daniel Chancellor, vice president of thought leadership at Norstella, Evaluate’s parent company.
As Chancellor had started to point out, while China’s potential to upend the market grows, the World Preview Report outlines other major sector highlights, including GLP-1s; mergers and acquisitions (M&A); research and development (R&D); and biologics.
GLP-1 agonists lead the way in pharma growth
The growth of GLP-1 agonists is skyrocketing, with 20% compounded growth expected between 2024 and 2030. They are also expected make up close to 9% of all Rx drug sales by the end of the decade. This is highlighted by Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro and Zepbound projection of nearly $62 billion, representing three times that of Humira’s peak.
Novo Nordisk’s CagriSema—a candidate expected to be filing for approval in Q1 2026 that’s a combination of cagrilintide, a dual amylin and calcitonin receptor agonist, and semaglutide, a GLP-1 agonist—was at the top of the pipeline value chart with a net present value (NPV) of over $80 billion, but it reportedly fell short of expectations in a recent Phase III study, resulting in Novo unveiling a new trial with different doses known as REDEFINE 11.3
M&A activity cools under policy pressure
As of now, M&A activity is currently in a holding pattern due to the aforementioned US drug pricing and tariff uncertainty. Deals have evolved in the sense that they now include lower upfront payments, and structures that are much more milestone-heavy.
An example of this is Novartis—this past April, the company had paid Regulus Therapeutics $800 million, plus $900 million in milestones, if farabursen, an oligonucleotide for the treatment of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease, is approved.
Biologics surpass small molecules in market share
Biologics—also known as large molecular drugs—are continuing to be on the rise, exceeding small molecules in terms of value. This year, they accounted for 51% of overall prescription drug sales; in five years, that number is expected to represent 57%. Given that projection, perhaps it may not be as surprising to hear that over two-thirds of 2030’s top 100 best sellers will be biologics.
However, due to their convenience and ease to produce, smaller molecules still lead in M&A.
References
1. Evaluate Releases Updated Pharmaceutical Market Forecasts in Annual World Preview Report. Evaluate. June 23, 2025. Accessed June 23, 2025. Release sent via email.
2. 2025 World Preview: Pharma Growth Steady Amid Turbulent Seas and Rising China. Evaluate. June 17, 2025. Accessed June 23, 2025. https://www.evaluate.com/thought-leadership/2025-world-preview/
3. CagriSema 2.4 mg / 2.4 mg demonstrated 22.7% mean weight reduction in adults with overweight or obesity in REDEFINE 1, published in NEJM. PR Newswire June 22, 2025. Accessed June 23, 2025. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cagrisema-2-4-mg--2-4-mg-demonstrated-22-7-mean-weight-reduction-in-adults-with-overweight-or-obesity-in-redefine-1--published-in-nejm-302487770.html
