Evaluate, known for providing market insights for the pharma sector, has recently unveiled its 2026 Preview report,¹ which offers a 2026 market forecast.

According to the report, biopharma has reclaimed momentum after a prolonged period of tight financing and limited investor support. However, it’s predicted that the industry will remain in a cautious recovery phase in 2026.

Despite the approach, investor enthusiasm continues to driver higher valuations, but sustaining that confidence is dependent on more evidence in the R&D space. After all, as noted in the foreward, commentators felt that the biotech sector emerging from this long drought is “smarter, leaner, and higher quality, run by investors and executives who know how to spend money wisely.”

How will M&A activity shape biopharma growth in 2026?

One of those drivers will be mergers and acquisitions, an area expected to see plenty of movement.

“M&A drove the market’s rise at the end of 2025. In October and November, we saw $36 billion deployed in biotech buyouts,” pointed out Daniel Chancellor, Norstella’s vice president of thought leadership, in a press release.² “We will see more M&A action in 2026 as the approaching patent cliff requires further decisive action to navigate.”

Although the major patent cliff is still a few years away—which involves over $300 billion in branded prescription drugs losing exclusivity through 2030—revenue losses are anticipated for such drugs as Eliquis, Entresto, and Stelara, with projected loss of sales of more than $2.5 billion, $2.25 billion, and $2.1 billion respectively.

Which drugs and therapy areas are expected to drive sales growth?

In the metabolic space, Eli Lilly is anticipated to overtake Novo Nordisk as the leader in the metabolic (GLP-1) space come this year, due to high demand for tirzepatide (Mounjaro and Zepbound). In fact, Mounjaro is forecasted to be the top incretin brand this year with over $25 billion in sales.

Projections also show that global sales of tirzepatide overall will reach $45 billion, with Novo’s semaglutide at just under $40 billion. The latter does have momentum, after being FDA approved in oral form.

If one wants to analyze the top-selling brand this year, Keytruda (Merck & Co) is predicted to remain in the top slot, propelled by the drug’s new injectable version known as KeyTruda Qlex, which was approved by the FDA this past September.³

How are regulatory shifts and FDA programs impacting market stability?

From a regulatory perspective, the report notes there is a bit of volatility, given the various “seismic” shifts that have occurred at the FDA, including staffing cuts and the development of the Commissioner’s National Priority Voucher, a program that reviews certain applications “breathtakingly fast.” Per this pilot CNPV program,⁴ qualifying sponsors can obtain a voucher that allows the FDA to complete its review in as little as one to two months, compared with the standard 10–12-month review window that normally follows the final submission process.

Uncertainty in the vaccine space also remains, due to the administration’s skepticism, which could limit revenue and stunt future development.

Other notable highlights of the report include a deep dive into therapeutic areas, drug launches, and market conditions that are expected to develop, including:

• Immunology and inflammation, targeted oncology, metabolic disease, and RNA-based therapies, which are expected to remain the most active areas for dealmaking.
• 57 novel drugs are expected to launch in the US in 2026, while anticipated fifth-year sales have the potential to reach nearly $50 billion.

Overall, the report examines a range of trends shaping the year ahead, including an outlook for market recovery.

“After four years of challenges and uncertainties, such as interest rates, pricing, tariffs, and legislation, optimism is back in the sector,” added Chancellor. “Recent caution suggests a market boom is in no one’s interest, although selective investments in the strongest, most-promising developments will be the focus, and we’re expecting a busy year of investment and pipeline development.”

References

1. 2026 Preview: Navigating Pharma’s Critical Year. Evaluate. January 7, 2026. Accessed January 15, 2026. https://www.evaluate.com/thought-leadership/2026-preview/

2. Evaluate Releases Look into Pharma Market in 2026. Evaluate. January 7, 2026. Accessed January 15, 2026. Press release provided via email.

3. FDA approves pembrolizumab and berahyaluronidase alfa-pmph for subcutaneous injection. US Food & Drug Administration. September 19, 2025. Accessed January 15, 2026. https://www.fda.gov/drugs/resources-information-approved-drugs/fda-approves-pembrolizumab-and-berahyaluronidase-alfa-pmph-subcutaneous-injection

4. Tracy D. FDA to Launch National Priority Voucher Program to Speed Drug Reviews for Critical Therapies. Pharmaceutical Executive. June 18, 2025. Accessed January 15, 2026. https://www.pharmexec.com/view/fda-national-priority-voucher-program