Mid-Year Check-In: Will Pharma M&A Keep Pace?

Pharmaceutical Commerce recently checked in with Roel van den Akker, deals partner at PwC, to measure the first half of 2026 against the forecasts the sector carried into the year.

Coming into 2026, several outlooks projected that dealmaking would accelerate as looming patent cliffs pressured large-cap portfolios, with immunology and inflammation, targeted oncology, metabolic disease and RNA-based therapies flagged as the most active hunting grounds. PwC has characterized the current cycle as favoring precision science over sheer scale, with buyers prioritizing targeted, asset-centric transactions that fill specific pipeline gaps rather than large platform bets.¹ The question at the midpoint was whether the data had borne that out.

By van den Akker’s read, it has, and then some. He characterized the market as running “a little bit beyond expectations,” pointing to 36 deals above $1 billion in enterprise value across the first six and a half months of the year. Those transactions carried roughly $140 billion in aggregate value, he said, with total M&A over the same stretch landing near $160 billion to $165 billion. Annualized, that pace implies a biopharma and services M&A market potentially north of $300 billion, a level he described as “very, very active” by historical standards.

The first-half surge tracks with figures from across the sector. PwC’s midyear outlook logged more than $65 billion in pharmaceutical and life sciences deal value in the first quarter, which it called the strongest quarter since 2020.¹ The urgency is structural, with the firm estimating more than $300 billion in branded pharma revenue exposed to loss of exclusivity this decade.¹ Ernst & Young reached a similar read in its 2026 Biotech Beyond Borders report, recording a third straight year of biotech revenue growth, up 13% to $232 billion in 2025, and pointing to rising licensing and M&A volume and value as a central engine of momentum into 2026.²

Van den Akker attributes the activity to a mix of “fascinating science,” widening pipeline gaps ahead of patent expirations and durable C-suite confidence, backed by healthy balance sheets, ample dry powder and deal capacity. He also flagged newer co-development and co-commercialization structures between US multinationals and Chinese biotechs as a trend worth watching, alongside a policy backdrop he views as far calmer than the tariff and pricing turbulence of 2025. Looking to the back half, he sees little reason for the pace to slow. “That’s what I foresee the rest of the year,” he said.

References

1. PwC. Pharmaceutical and Life Sciences: US Deals 2026 Midyear Outlook. Published June 17, 2026. Accessed July 15, 2026. https://www.pwc.com/us/en/industries/health-industries/library/pharmaceutical-life-sciences-us-deals-midyear-outlook.html
2. Ernst & Young LLP. EY 2026 Biotech Beyond Borders Report: A Fundamentally Strong Biotech Industry Seeks Balance Amid Continued Uncertainty. EY. Published June 9, 2026. Accessed July 15, 2026. https://www.ey.com/en_us/insights/life-sciences/biotech-beyond-borders